corona

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There is a Chinese ‘curse’ that is translated as

“May you live in interesting times”.

I’d say this is one of those. I want to explore a few predictions on what coronavirus could do for humanity. As well as my current thoughts on the topic

It’s ok not to have an opinion

Everyone has something to say on COVID. Ironically, I’m now writing my opinion on COVID.

But amongst the deluge of information we are consuming, it is ok to say “I don’t know”. Because for 99% of humanity, this is the case. Most people are not epidemiologists or virologists.

I don’t know the repercussions of COVID. I don’t know how it will pan out for society and the economy. I don’t know how many lives will be lost.

At best all we have are models and predictions. But the ‘map is not the territory’. Acknowledging our limited understanding is crucial and finding some comfort in uncertainty can be valuable.

Information Overload and Misinformation

The 24/7 news cycle is something we’ve all become accustomed to. I usually don’t consume any news at all as I found it too distracting and often the most important news tends to find itself to me through others.

However recently, I’ve been sucked into reading about COVID, and I can’t stop. It really doesn’t add anything valuable.

Furthermore, there is spreading of misinformation on these online platforms, that is hard to avoid. From ’10 ways to boost your immune system’ to Charlatans peddling cures for financial gain.

I see this a lot of WhatsApp and Twitter. Some from doctors which is appalling.

The response is to treat information you read with skepticism, and to trust reputable sources only (e.g. WHO).

Black Swan Events

Taleb describes a black swan as an event that 1) is beyond normal expectations that is so rare that even the possibility that it might occur is unknown, 2) has a catastrophic impact when it does occur, and 3) is explained in hindsight as if it were actually predictable

Although, it doesn’t meet 1) - we definitely knew a pandemic was incoming at some point. This whole ordeal has made me think about Black Swan events.

How you should reduce your exposure to negative Black Swans- for example by having savings etc. And try and increase exposure to positive Black Swans.

Predictions on Impact

  1. More emphasis on Science and Technology - increased funding
  2. Distributed working : working from home will become a norm
  3. Increased compensation for healthcare workers and scientists as the public opinion changes.
  4. ‘Telemedicine’ will become more integrated into the system
  5. Global cooperation as this can be a demonstration that humanity can work towards a singular goal
  6. Better preparation for future global pandemics and crises (Global warming, Nuclear war, Technological disruption)
  7. There will be second order impacts that we won’t see coming. Maybe a spike in birth rates (or divorce) as people are at home. Maybe new handle resistant bugs due to the widespread use of hand sanitiser. Don’t get me started on toilet paper stocks.

Ending

I don’t have much to say about Coronavirus, because I don’t really know much. But reading a lot of Sci-fi has given me an inbuilt optimism about humanity. We have the potential for so much good.

Currently, the hospital is eerily quiet. 300+ empty beds.

I hope that we can avoid the worst.


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